While I’m largely sympathetic to Mr. Taleb, I am surprised that he seems to be even more skeptical of models than I am. One can get too wrapped up in empiricism, and it is wholly inefficient to rely only on empirical observations for every decision. At some point, you need to rely on estimations and statistics. His book looks worth a read and I will probably buy it, but a quick look at blurbs in wikipedia indicates that he could be downright anti-scientific. That being said the overreliance on computer models to economics is part and parcel of the problem with the housing bubble. And anyone who despises Ben Bernanke this much is worth listening to. The last two minutes are really good.
The current zeitgeist in sexuality is Librarian Heat, a culmination of which led to downright salivation over Sarah Palin from guys like me, and of course fierce hatred from the beautiful enlightened people on the left. That she did not do much to engender those feelings is of no consequence, in a world where perception is reality, reaction is the key.
The witch-trial hysteria of the past two incendiary weeks unfortunately reveals a disturbing trend in the Democratic Party, which has worsened over the past decade. Democrats are quick to attack the religiosity of Republicans, but Democratic ideology itself seems to have become a secular substitute religion. Since when did Democrats become so judgmental and intolerant? Conservatives are demonized, with the universe polarized into a Manichaean battle of us versus them, good versus evil. Democrats are clinging to pat group opinions as if they were inflexible moral absolutes. The party is in peril if it cannot observe and listen and adapt to changing social circumstances.
I think for those begging for more Librarian Heat, put down your Maxim and pick up Amity Shlaes new book: The Forgotten Man. Shlaes has Librarian Heat in spades and is willing to fight the good fight against Keynesian economics and it’s leading proponent, Paul Krugman. The right doesn’t just need good messengers, it needs good arguments. Amity Shlaes provides both.
All this and brains, too.
Also, here’s a great roundtable with Shlaes and Sebastian Mallaby. Unfortunately you have to put up with two other schlubs half the time.
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