Truthfully inconvenient, or, looking behind the global warming curtain of consensus

April 28, 2007 Category: Uncategorized

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By: johnnyb

Remember, this didn’t happen, it’s all a consensus, just listen to Sheryl Crow…

He said that over the past 40 years the number of major hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. Atlantic coast has declined even though carbon dioxide levels have risen.

Gray, speaking to a group of Republican state lawmakers, had harsh words for researchers and politicians who say man-made greenhouse gases are responsible for global warming.

“They’re blaming it all on humans, which is crazy,” he said. “We’re not the cause of it.”

Many researchers believe warming is causing hurricanes to get stronger, while others aren’t sure.

Gray complained that politics and research into global warming have created “almost an industry” that has unfairly frightened the public and overwhelmed dissenting voices.

He said research arguing that humans are causing global warming is “mush” based on unreliable computer models that cannot possibly take into account the hundreds of factors that influence the weather.

Alarm raised over Kyoto in Canada

April 20, 2007 Category: Uncategorized

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By: wdporter

It seems the Canadians are saying what everyone already knew:

John Baird claimed petrol prices would leap and thousands of jobs would vanish if Canada tried to reduce greenhouse gases by 6% from 1990 levels by 2012.

No. Really?

It seems at least someone in the rest of the world is beginning to agree with this position. Including the Turkish:

In the last century the primary energy source was petrol but in this century it would be natural gas, said Guler In response to a question over signing of the Kyoto Protocol Guker responded by saying, “We do not want the world to get polluted either.

But in the protocol there are views that even object to building of dams. This is important in respect to our national interests.”

This is what happens when only environmentalists try to structure environmental reform. Water power is forbidden because it might upset some fish. Thus the real goal of reducing air pollutants and dependence on fossil fuels is usurped.

Thus the environmentalists in Canada who are taking advantage of the Earth Day to push for…guess what…the Kyoto Treaty:

International Earth Day will be celebrated Sunday in Montreal by a march condemning what environmental groups see as the federal government’s inaction over the Kyoto Protocol…”We want people to go into the streets to send a message to the government of Canada: You must act now,” said Jocelyn Higginson of Greenpeace Quebec.

And the Australian Labor Party seems to feel that the economics are apparently not important:

Mr Rudd, who is on his first visit to the US since becoming Opposition Leader late last year, has told an American research institute that Australia, China and the US must work together to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

…“On this question, our respective national positions are compromised by our refusal so far to ratify the Kyoto protocol,” Mr Rudd said.

“Given that it is projected that China’s greenhouse gas emissions will exceed those of the US by 2009, the planet demands that all three of us engage in the necessary international governance arrangements to cap greenhouse gas emissions before it is too late.”

Apparently, Mr Rudd has not even glanced at the Kyoto Treaty which clearly relieves China of any financial responsiblity for their soon-to-be leading CO2 emissions. The way it works is a “all have to play but not all have to pay” set up where developing countries (like India and China) really don’t have to do anything at all except beg developed countries for money to help them solve their emissions problems. This is an excerpt of a publication by a Stanford Climatologist, that was sent to me by a “Kyoto apologist” a year ago:

Delay in LDC participation in decarbonizing protocols could lock in many dozens of inefficient coal burning power plants, each with four decades of economic life in, say, India or China or Indonesia, which would not allow global warming solutions to be very cost-effective, I argued. Not unexpectedly, I noticed frowns from the Africans and Asians present. But their faces changed when I added: “But just because protecting nature and the global commons requires that all countries must play, fairness suggests that not all should have to pay!

“We have responsibilities, too…” AWWWWWW. “But the West is going to pay for it all” YAAAAAYYYYY!!!!

The logic of course is that you get more “bang for the buck” (reduction in emissions/$) if the US, for instance, invests in developing countries to improve their emissions than it is to invest in advancing already advanced US technologies. One problem with that logic is that it doesn’t improve the air quality in the US which honestly should be a major motivator for reducing emissions, thus the investment has no economic return for the investor.

This is where I just go nuts. Let’s forget about global warming for a second. Who doesn’t want cleaner air? I mean really. Has anyone been to L.A. lately? Not pleasant. What about Jakarta? Isn’t it simply easier to talk in terms of improving the quality of the air so that those living in those cities have better living conditions. Nope. One must make the whole world (the U.S.) responsible for the whole world (Asia and Africa). Whatever happened to think globally, act locally?

Yes, the US (and Canada, et al) should take a leadership role in attempting to reducing emissions (global warming or not), but by the VERY DEFINITION of the Kyoto Treaty, they already HAVE taken a leadership role in reducing carbon emissions. If the US is so advanced that it’s cheaper to pay for some else’s advancements, in what way have we not already taken a leadership role? Obviously, though, the West has to be punished for being more advanced, their economic strength sacrificed for the “greater good.” Thus results global distribution of wealth.

Any “Global” treaty that relieves the biggest violators (East Asia) free from responsibility to reduce emissions is not a treaty that a developed country would do well to sign on to.

A better approach in my opinion is for cities and states to develop their own individual plans to reduce emissions in their own locales; plans that fit with their own current levels of technology, emissions levels, economic strength, etc, and work from the bottom up:

“California is doing everything we can to tip the balance on the environment,” Schwarzenegger said, speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “We are not waiting for the federal government. We are not waiting for Washington.”

Federal policymakers may be pressured to enact nationwide limits on greenhouse gas emissions in light of a U.S. Supreme Court decision earlier this month. In a case involving states and environmental groups seeking stricter federal emissions mandates, the high court ruled that the Environmental Protection Agency has the authority to regulate carbon emissions from vehicles and must offer a reasonable explanation if it decides not to impose more stringent restrictions.

That last is because Kennedy sure wouldn’t have states make any decisions for themselves.

But even better, iff Michigan, New Jersey, California, etc…add “we have the cleanest air of all the Metropolitan centers in the country” to their commercials touting business-friendliness, etc, wouldn’t they attract more people, businesses, and income. Wouldn’t your average American (voter) be even MORE concerned about the air that their children breathe, that we obviously DO have ultimate control over, than some long term, unclear, nefarious “climate change” that we may or may not have any control over?

BBC News

Global Ice Age Warming

March 12, 2007 Category: Uncategorized

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By: johnnyb

Once all this snow melts our asses are in a sling!

Global Warming

February 15, 2007 Category: Uncategorized

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By: johnnyb

Happy Valentines Day Y’all. My thoughts on Global Warming after 27 minutes of clearing ice off my car.
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Methane levels

January 31, 2007 Category: Uncategorized

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By: johnnyb

A quick take of the map shows that a good bit of surface methane (above) comes from Europe and Asia. Forgive me if my geography is wrong but is the red spot Baghdad? If so can we blame global warming on sunni insurgents? Looks like America, which produces a lot of beef, has much lower levels of methane. The bottom graph is stratospheric levels of methane. From Wikipedia.

The real cause for global warming?

January 31, 2007 Category: Uncategorized

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By: wdporter

This is just great. Apparently the culprit responsible for more greenhouse gases than any other source is not cars, factories, planes, even right-wing capitalists.

This is an interesting twist, in that it is apparently a man-made phenomenon. The replacing of forests with cattle farms and the wastes that it produces (methane has 20 times more warming power than carbon dioxide) could double this damage by 2050.

All this according to our good friends at the UN.

So we don’t need to search for alternative energy sources, but instead need to genetically engineer a cow with less flatulence. Call your Senators and get us back to the table at Kyoto.

Independent Online Edition > Environment

Dissent on Global Warming

November 02, 2006 Category: Uncategorized

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By: johnnyb

Thoughtful and important piece from the foremost “Skeptical Environmentalist” and author of the book of the same name (also recommended), Bjorn Lomberg.

The closer:

Last weekend in New York, I asked 24 U.N. ambassadors–from nations including China, India and the U.S.–to prioritize the best solutions for the world’s greatest challenges, in a project known as Copenhagen Consensus. They looked at what spending money to combat climate change and other major problems could achieve. They found that the world should prioritize the need for better health, nutrition, water, sanitation and education, long before we turn our attention to the costly mitigation of global warning.

We all want a better world. But we must not let ourselves be swept up in making a bad investment, simply because we have been scared by sensationalist headlines.

Global Warming rebuttal

December 16, 2005 Category: Uncategorized

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By: johnnyb

Before I address my nameless critic, a recap:

1. I am idiotic for ignoring evidence about global warming.
2. Me and my horse…well, one can read the comments themselves.
3. Whether or not global warming exists, big oil companies don’t want it to exist, and since big oil companies run the American government, the globe shall warm. (Take note that the article linked in the opening statement discussed the lack of economic feasibility for the Europeans in following the Kyoto treaty).

My verbose critic does not deny that climate science, in modern terms, is in it’s infancy, a statement which is fairly value neutral, but central to my argument. Every science starts somewhere, and every scientist gravitates to his field for some reason. The eugenics movement was an influence on Nazisms ethnic cleansing policy doesn’t mean that Gregor Mendel was anti-semitic or a “doo-doo head”. However, ivy league scientists used the science of eugenics to force sterilization in blacks, in Appalachia, etc. My main point there is that sometimes the federal government can use scientific findings as leverage for horrible policy.

Which brings me to my second point. These days, scientists are under a lot of pressure to produce, and to produce quickly. Sometimes this leads to academic fraud, as was the case in South Korea recently. More often it simply requires a reader to read 4 or 5 papers to get the gist of a scientists work, as opposed to 1 paper back in the 70s.

That’s why the review process is so integral to good research. If a spectacular finding is run up the flagpole without critical review, bad research is disseminated throughout the public. If the right people pick up on it, then bad research can lead to horrible public policy. Consider Michael Mann ,(not the guy who created Miami Vice), who I’m sure is a nice guy. In 1998, not long after the introduction of the Kyoto protocol, Mann, as an adjunct faculty member and PhD candidate published an article in Nature claiming that the world was on an incredible warming trend in the last hundred years. Mann’s Hockey Stick had become a rallying point for environmentalists , and the IPCC, an intergovernmental agency devoted to studying climate change, had pointed to his work as definitive. Before his work was published, many climate scientists believed there were variations in the global warming and cooling periods in the last 1000 years. The Hockey Stick was a good story, however, and the fact that those cycles hadn’t shown up in his model didn’t stop the reviewers at Nature from publishing.

There are some problems with Mann’s findings however. Most glaringly, Mann spliced two data sets into his principle components analysis , and failed to run control data. He relied on tree ring data for the first 900 years worth of data, and then added in surface temperature for the last 100 years. If tree rings are such good indicators of temperature, why mess with the PCA? Wouldn’t adding factors into your data set need to be carefully controlled, and certainly not represented in a single figure? Speaking of which, a simple control proposed by critics of Mann points out the main methodological flaw , namely, random noise thrown into the PCA produces the same results as Mann’s (primary literature here).

In a serious review process, editors would note that work in this manner would need to be controlled, which it obviously wasn’t. Mann issued a retraction, but his academic post is still nice and cozy.

Certainly oil companies have money and power, but just because they disagree with a policy doesn’t make it right. People may not like the fact that other people drive big cars and live in big houses, but before we decide to impose energy rations, the science should be airtight. Scientists have agendas, too.

I didn’t mean to trash climate science. But the media really trumpeted this story, and I think once scientists stray too far into activism, their science suffers (baloney science). There is plenty of this in drug research too, by academics and drug companies. A recent article on heat islands caused by pavement provides some insight on the warming phenomena.

More links:

The Opinion Journal’s take on the issue

Mother Jones take on the issue

Posted at 08:27 pm by Johnny B

Now for baloney science

December 13, 2005 Category: Uncategorized

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By: johnnyb

AKA Global Warning

TCSdaily has an interesting piece on the lack of economic feasibility of the Kyoto Protocol.

Here’s my very brief take on Global Warming.

1. Chemistry had it’s roots in alchemy, in which very weird men thought different incantations could change the chemical properties of something into gold. It was the folly of many who believed they held dominion over things of this world.

2. Genetics had it’s roots in eugenics, which, with the help of some very active governments:

“Three generations of imbeciles is enough” Oliver Wendell Holmes

this pseudoscience was used as a tool for holocaust and forced sterilization.

3. Neuroscience started with, in modern terms, phrenology, the belief that the shape of the skull determines what kind of person you are. Weird, but not as harmful as eugenics.

Climate science is a science in it’s infancy. Like these other examples, grandiose claims are made based on the first order approximation of what scientists are seeing with a very small fraction of available data.

One problem is interpretation of data using new tools. Let’s say I have a new scanning procedure for detecting the plaques that supposedly cause Alzheimer’s Disease. Now, let’s say It turns out more people have a lot of the plaques than we thought, even if they don’t have any symptoms of AD. What if everyone over fifty had these plaques. Would my paper be titled, “85% of people over 50 have Alzheimer’s!”, or would I rethink my hypothesis that the plaques are really a problem?

Climate science, as a science, is being driven by the media and governments far too interested in limiting the sovereignty of the US, China, India, and Russia. Scientists who might be happy to study non-global warming climate are more than willing to feed the alligators (read:media) more of what they want to hear in order to get a grant funded.

Posted at 10:14 pm by Johnny B

Posted by Name @ 12/13/2005 02:37 AM PST
This is yet another idiotic statement made by a Republican and influenced by Republican rhetoric. (And from a very smart guy too!) You completely ignore the facts and evidence pointing towards the reality of the global warming phenomenon and instead try to liken climate science to alchemy. This reminds me of Jordan’s argument a while back that began with “Of Liberals and Men” and tried to suggest that gutless men with little drive and courage gravitated towards the left. “You liberals and environmentalists are doo-doo heads!” Fuck you and the horse you rode in on. The baselessness of your post and the degenerate attitudes of the right towards the environment and towards Global Warming are rooted in the very first point your make (which in fact has nothing to do with the rest of your post): economic feasibility. It is not in the interest of those a) in big business, b) who are in power c) in Washington, and d) the fools who favor this Administration’s policies and thus approximately fifty percent of the United States, to believe in Global Warming. Interest. Economic interest. Who in the oil, gas, and automotive industries would be willing to say Global Warming is real? Really? Wouldn’t they be risking their jobs? Those people will continue ignoring global warming not because of evidence on the contrary but because they want to continue buying their big cars and nice houses. Economics affects not just how people make decisions but also what they believe in. People in the oil business (and these people rule Washington) are making too much money too dump their business and their fortunes in favor of relaxing the environment and natural resources. That is why global warming doesn’t exist for these people. Not because of your petty ideas of climate science being under developed. Bah.


Posted by John Broussard @ 12/13/2005 10:52 AM PST
Welcome, Name

If you thought “…Grandiose claims are made based on a first order approximation of what scientists are seeing with a very small fraction of available data” meant “environmentalists are doo-doo heads”, I’m sorry for the confusion. I don’t think your comments are appropriate. If you want to present an argument, do so. I can get into more detail on my thoughts here, but I will not tolerate this nonsense.

With regards to your more appropriate comments on oil companies: One way to reduce emissions in general would be to use natural gas and nuclear power instead of coal. If the oil companies are in charge, why not push for more natural gas power plants instead of coal? I’m no coal expert but I don’t think Exxon, BP, etc. own a lot of coal mines.


Posted by John Broussard @ 12/13/2005 10:54 AM PST
Who is this? Please shoot me an e-mail @ mrtcb2@hotmail.com


Posted by Shoobox @ 12/13/2005 12:11 PM PST
I thought Oil Companies are in a perfect position to actually do something about becoming less gas dependent and they are…they have the money and the expertise to do so.


Posted by BP @ 12/13/2005 03:06 PM PST
They also have the motivation. Anyone who believes that combustible fuel engines have an indefinite lifespan is dreaming, and major oil and automotive companies are investing BILLIONS into these alternatives.

In the meantime, it is definitely not in their best interest to tout the virtues of global warming whether it is or is not based on sound science. More could definitely be done, but there is no denying that in the SHORT TERM it is unlikely that oil will be a non-entity in our energy policies, and there is no doubt that that money talks, and we got a “less than impressive” energy bill because of it.

Thanks for the comments, though.

Science roundup

November 08, 2005 Category: Uncategorized

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By: johnnyb

Interesting articles:

1.) Women laugh at jokes easier than men

2.) The ice caps are melting! (except in places where they are getting thicker) From www.eurekalert.org

“The result is a mixed picure, with a net increase of 6.4 centimetres per year in the interior area above 1500 metres elevation. Below that altitude, the elevation-change rate is minus 2.0 cm per year, broadly matching reported thinning in the ice-sheet margins. The trend below 1500 metres however does not include the steeply-sloping marginal areas where current altimeter data are unusable.

The spatially averaged increase is 5.4 cm per year over the study area, when corrected for post-Ice Age uplift of the bedrock beneath the ice sheet.”

3.) Red Wine prevents Alzheimer’s! Huzzah!